"Despite these polls and the passions raised by the war with Hamas, it is easy to exaggerate the power of Gaza as a motivating issue for voters eight months from no-win November. History suggests that foreign policy issues end up as a minor motif in presidential politics unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004.”
I think the balance of power has shifted a bit between the US and Israel, such that many people are overestimating how much sway the US has over Israel. Since about the 90’s, Israel had set about trying to reduce their own dependence on the US for its military needs, specifically because they didn’t want to be beholden to our demands and they didn’t see us as a reliable partner. While the GOP mostly gives them the greenlight on anything (at least since after Bush I’s term), the Democrats have the gall to want a more balanced approach to the peace process, to actually consider Palestinians. Everyone still has this idea that Israel is completely dependent on the US for everything, but that’s just not the case anymore. Pre-Oct 7, they’d made peace with neighbors, it’s relatively cheap for them to maintain the Iron Dome system (that we did most of the setup for, but it’s drastically cut down on the effect of rocket attacks), and the amount of aid that the US provides is a smaller % of their GDP. It’s just a different world now.
I think if we were to push the subject of them ending their offensive, they’d say, “Fuck off,” and go to China or maybe Russia for whatever weapon needs they still have, someone who won’t give them any shit about genocide. I think we should still do it anyways, because we can’t be an impartial broker of peace as long as we’re supplying weapons to one side of the conflict. I think Biden/Democrats are trying to walk a fine line here, they probably honestly want the Gaza war to end, but there’s a fear of pissing off weapons companies and AIPAC, it would hurt them bad in elections. It’s still the right thing to do, but I’m guessing that’s part of the calculus.
History suggests that foreign policy issues end up as a minor motif in presidential politics unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004.
History does suggest that but we are in the present. It’s now rated one of the top issues facing the country. Maybe voters will forget all about it by November, but it seems pretty important as things stand now.
Best hope for Biden is for this nightmare in Gaza to end. Obviously Trump is worse, but it’s not a good look for Biden in any case. He could stop supporting Israel but I don’t know what the death toll would have to reach for that to happen
It’s a perfect wedge issue to cleave voters away from Biden. He’s the least popular president in modern history and democrats have lost substantial support from people of color more broadly. He was likely to lose before this. He’s more likely now.
Democratic poll denialism is a sure sign we are in serious, serious trouble.
Edit: the fact that people downvote comments stating basic facts about a) the unpopularity of Biden, and b) the rising unpopularity of democrats among people of color is exactly what I’m talking about. We’re in serious trouble.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support
Republicans have become the party of “if we don’t win it, we’ll take it.” And democrats have become the party of “but we have to win! I don’t want to look at anything that doesn’t agree, and I don’t want to have to do anything about it except downvote!”
I’m straight up terrified.
The polls are wrong as long as they keep clashing with electoral reality. Nate Copper’s article is heavy on poll data but flimsy on electoral anecdotes: a county election in 2020 and New York Elections with inconvenient data lopped off (The recent elections to replace George Santos).
The shift the polls are claiming are so seismic that it begs the question why this unprecedented shift is non-existent in basically every post-dobbs election. And let’s not forget the fact that these polls present other, nonsensical trends to like the elderly shifting hard to Democrats too: a shift that can’t easily be waved off by the usual “The shift is only in voters that only vote in presidential elections” excuse.
Is it because Biden isn’t president of Israel?
I bet it’s that.
Yeah, but I doubt average Americans think about international relations and macro trends in that way when voting. The economy is “booming”, but people are not experiencing the boom, and are rather complaining about increased cost of living, coupled with rising crime in cities like NYC due to a challenging refugee situation.
If I was a betting man, that will score higher in the voting booth than Middle East policies, NATO, green new deal or RvW, and I think there are a number of democrats who are unhappy, but won’t necessarily vote for Trump, however they might not be voting Biden either.
I think there are a number of democrats who are unhappy, but won’t necessarily vote for Trump, however they might not be voting Biden either.
The term is disenfranchised.
Historically, Republicans win when Democrats don’t turn out to vote. When you look at the past 4 years, its hard to believe the Democrats aren’t trying to disenfranchise their voter base.
“You gotta vote come hell or high water” is a Conservative mindset.
You vote for a candidate worth voting for is a Liberal mindset.
Neither Trump nor Biden are worth voting for.
That’s when liberals stay home, or go third party.
I’m not convinced.
Biden is super pro Israel, has been forever.
Trump is super pro Israel. But also is pro money. And pro being schmoozed. And pro Saudi. Honestly he’s pro-himself only.
The American public at large doesn’t GAF about Palestine. I bet 90% can’t even point out where in the world Israel is on a map even if they are Bible thumping Jerusalem lovers.
If Trump gets into office, you better believe Saudi, Qatar, and the UAE will be whispering sweet nothing’s into his ear while donating some sweet money to his corporations to care more about Palestine. Trump Estate’s, a new Palestinian village coming soon.
With Biden you know what you’re getting. With Trump you don’t know. So if this is your single issue… I could see it mattering.
People vote against their interests or irrationally based on a single talking point all the time. It’s time to stop giving so much reverance to the US voter. They do not research and carefully weigh their options. Most vote tribally for whoever has the right letter. The rest are too stupid or brave to admit the choice they made up 3 years earlier. Very few are truly swing voters and of you can’t pick a side at this point, you’re exactly the type of person that would vote for someone giving you a free sandwich or that agrees with your one talking point you love.
If Trump gets into office, you better believe Saudi, Qatar, and the UAE will be whispering sweet nothing’s into his ear while donating some sweet money to his corporations to care more about Palestine.
I don’t think the Saudi royal family cares about Gaza. They may talk the talk because it helps cement their regional leadership. But billionaire Arab oil monarchs don’t care about a bunch of half-Arab refugees hiding in tunnels under shanty towns.
The truth is that radical Islamist groups like Hamas, the Houthis, and ISIS are a potentially grave threat to the Saudi royal family. It is absolutely in the Saudi’s interest to have distraction targets. The US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, the Syria war, Houthi attacks on western-owned Red Sea shipping, simmering tensions between the US and Iran… these are all good for thr Saudis. They all increase the price of oil, make Saudi Arabia an attractive, stable ally for the West, and keep Islamist radicals focused on the evil unbelievers rather than the evil oil monarchs.
They care for show. But they also care because Saudi style help, would be them owning the land essentially. Now Saudi could build the Suez canal competition in the strip. The Saudis dislike the Egyptians and love more money. That’s my tin foil hat conspiracy anyways.
In 2020, Biden carried four swing states by less than 2 percent: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If the 2024 election were again agonizingly close, would-be Biden voters infuriated by Israel’s conduct in Gaza could make a difference by staying home or opting for a third-party candidate. But the same is true for other issues that arouse passions like guns, immigration, and abortion.
Lol…
So the author admits Biden is dangerously close to losing, but he doesn’t think Gaza matters because lots of other issues could lose the election…
So he thinks we should just ignore all the issues and plow ahead with a candidate we all know could easily lose.
If liberals in big enough numbers cost Biden the presidency, imagine their shock when they discover trump is way way worse than Joe ever was on issues in the Middle East they care about. These people remind me of the handful of “Democrats” I know personally that refused to vote for Hillary because they just knew she’d be no different than trump. 3 SCOTUS radicals, an attempted Coup later and Roe v Wade now overturned, I wonder if they are happy with their decision?
My only counterpoint is that humans are really, really bad at regret and accountability. “I really made a mistake not voting for Hillary and I should learn from that mistake” is not nearly as likely a thing for someone to tell themselves than “This is all Hillary’s/Trump’s/anyone else’s fault and I did the right thing.”
I could say the same thing for people who championed Hilary, and still champion Hilary and push her political ideals.
Did any of them take accountability and say “that was really dumb of me. I should have listened to democrats who warned me. I am responsible for Trump.”
Nope. You’re still here going “and I’ll fuckin’ do it again.”
“Hur dur. Vote for bad man. Hur dur. Bad man is better than worse man. Hur dur.”
